In just a few short weeks, the fixed-income market’s expectations for monetary policy have done a virtual about-face. This is not to say that investors are fickle. Some of this change in sentiment is data driven; some is Trump administration officials’ cajoling; and some is Federal Reserve Board chairman Jay Powell’s comments in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 22. Regardless, market indicators have shifted from zero or one rate cuts for the rest of 2025, to as many as four.

While it will possibly take months and even the rest of the year to see the full shakeout, April 2025 was a laboratory for market efficiency. Some might contend there was an element of ruthlessness in the activity. Starting even before the Trump administration’s trade policy tariffs went into effect on April 2, the “Bond Vigilantes,” a nebulous gang of institutional debt investors, started shooting up the place.

While it will possibly take months and even the rest of the year to see the full shakeout, April 2025 was a laboratory for market efficiency. Some might contend there was an element of ruthlessness in the activity. Starting even before the Trump administration’s trade policy tariffs went into effect on April 2, the “Bond Vigilantes,” a nebulous gang of institutional debt investors, started shooting up the place.