While it will possibly take months and even the rest of the year to see the full shakeout, April 2025 was a laboratory for market efficiency. Some might contend there was an element of ruthlessness in the activity. Starting even before the Trump administration’s trade policy tariffs went into effect on April 2, the “Bond Vigilantes,” a nebulous gang of institutional debt investors, started shooting up the place.

In periods of uncertainty, the only certainty is that risk increases. In statistical analysis risk is defined by a growing variance level. The wider the swings recorded between a bottom and top boundary determines the risk level. Recently, we have all watched the stock market vary widely on a daily and week-to-week basis. Part of the fluctuations have been caused by the talk of and decisions made regarding international trade tariffs. Understanding how the current policy movements surrounding the tariffs affect your bank is critical right now.

In periods of uncertainty, the only certainty is that risk increases. In statistical analysis risk is defined by a growing variance level. The wider the swings recorded between a bottom and top boundary determines the risk level. Recently, we have all watched the stock market vary widely on a daily and week-to-week basis. Part of the fluctuations have been caused by the talk of and decisions made regarding international trade tariffs. Understanding how the current policy movements surrounding the tariffs affect your bank is critical right now.